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LONG BEACH, November 10 – US retailers have welcomed news that railroad workers and their employees are extending the current “cooling off” period by several weeks, to December 4 from the current end date of November 19. 

The word came as US shoppers are expected to begin their holiday buying over the months of November and December for the year- end festive season.

“We are pleased to see the extension of the status quo from the union today,” said Jonathan Gold, Vice President, Supply Chain and Customs Policy for the National Retail Federation.

“We encourage the parties to remain at the table and resolve the outstanding issues and avoid a strike that would impact the entire supply chain and harm the economy,” Gold told Cargomatic.

Immediate concern delayed

The National Carriers’ Conference Committee, which represents the nation’s freight rail carriers in national collective bargaining, issued a statement confirming that “this extension eliminates the threat of a near-term freight rail service disruption.”

Earlier, Gold had expressed some concern over the situation, saying that  “with a rail strike possible this month, there are still challenges in the supply chain, but the majority of holiday merchandise is already on hand and retailers are well prepared to meet demand.”

Extension of the cooling off period comes as retailers expect a busy holiday season in the next two months, even as imports at the nation’s leading container ports are forecast to decline from earlier highs this year.

Retailers stocked up in advance

“Cargo levels that historically peak in the fall peaked in the spring this year as retailers concerned about port congestion, port and rail labor negotiations and other supply chain issues stocked up far in advance of the holidays,” Gold said.

Ben Hackett, founder of retail consultants Hackett Associates, confirmed that demand has fallen from peak consumption during the height of the pandemic and expected the “flattening of demand” that began midyear to carry into the first half of 2023.

“This will depress the volume of imports, which has already declined in recent months,” said Hackett, whose firm produces the monthly Global Port Tracker, which follows the trend of imports at leading US gateways. 

US imports declining

US ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled a record 2.4 million teu in May, but volume has seen a “mostly steady decline” since then, the GPT reported.

It said ports processed 2.03 million teu in September, the latest month for which final numbers are available, saying the figure was down 10.2% from August and down 4.9% from September 2021.

Looking ahead, the GPT reported that January 2023 is forecast at 1.98m teu, down 8.4% from January 2022 while February is forecast at 1.71m teu, down 19.1% from 2021 when “backed-up cargo” kept congested US ports busy despite the annual Lunar New Year shutdown of Asian factories. 

The GPT predicted that with most congestion issues continuing to ease, the month of February 2023 is expected to be the slowest since 1.61 million teu in June 2020. 

March is forecast at 1.99m teu, which GPT said “would be an improvement” from February but still “jdown 15.2% year-over-year.”

Graph: The Global Port Tracker, produced by Hackett Associates for the National Retail Federation, sees imports declining. Dark bars show 2021, light bars show 2022. Source: National Retail Federation